How the score works

Every prediction source speaks a different language. Clarivate names people or it doesn't. Tyler Cowen publishes a ranked list. A pool gives vote shares. A betting market gives a probability. The KmikeyM Power Ranking turns each of those into one number, the composite, so the board can be sorted, argued about, and replayed.

Step 1: each observation becomes a heat from 0 to 100

Kind	What the source said	Heat
`named`	The source lists this person	100
`rank`	Position r in a list of n	100 × (n − r + 1) ÷ n. First of five is 100, fifth of five is 20.
`share`	A vote share from 0 to 1	share × 100
`prob`	A market or bookmaker probability from 0 to 1	probability × 100

If a source publishes again about the same person, the newer observation replaces the older one. The old one stays in the record.

Step 2: sources carry weights

The weights are our editorial call. They are published here, from the same file the build reads, so what you see is what the score uses.

Source	Kind	Weight	Why
Clarivate Citation Laureates	`named`	3	The strongest quantitative predictor. Each September Clarivate names a handful of economists whose citation records look Nobel-class. Dozens of past picks have gone on to win, often years later.
Clarivate alumni (prior years)	`named`	1	Everyone Clarivate named in an earlier year who has not won yet. Still a real signal, since most Citation Laureates who win do so years after being named, but a weaker one than this year's list.
Polymarket	`prob`	3	A prediction market with real money on it. No 2026 Economics Nobel market as of Sept 20; its Peace and Literature markets open much earlier than economics. Enters the board when it lists one.
Kalshi	`prob`	3	A regulated US prediction market. Its 2026 Economics Nobel market opened July 1 with nine names. We record the price Kalshi displays, the last trade, and fall back to the midpoint of the best yes bid and ask for contracts that have never traded. Bid and ask ride in the note, since the book is thin. Kept separate from Polymarket so the two can disagree in public.
Ladbrokes	`prob`	2	Bookmaker odds, converted to an implied probability. Bookmakers price to balance their book, not to be right, so they carry less weight than a market.
Marginal Revolution	`rank`	1.5	Tyler Cowen's annual picks, in his order. One well-read economist's judgment, published before the announcement every year.
Cheap Talk pool	`share`	1	The Kellogg School blog's annual prediction pool. A crowd of economists voting, reported as shares.
HSE prediction contest	`share`	1	HSE University's annual open prediction contest. Aggregates informed opinion, reported as shares of entries.
KmikeyM desk	`named`	0.5	Our own calls. Deliberately light, so the desk can flag a sleeper without bending the board.

Step 3: the composite

A candidate's composite is the sum of weight × heat across sources, divided by the total weight of every source that has published anything so far. A source that has not published yet is ignored entirely, so a Clarivate name in September sits high until the markets open. When a new source comes online, everyone it ignores drops and everyone it names rises. That reshuffle is the season, and the replay shows it.

Tiers

Lock is 70 and up. Contender is 40 to 69. Darkhorse is 15 to 39. Field is everyone else we track. A Sleeper badge marks a KmikeyM desk call that the composite has not caught up to yet.

Worked example: Susan C. Athey

As of Sep 20, 2026, these sources have published something (only they count):

Source	Weight	Heat for Susan C. Athey	Weight × heat
Clarivate Citation Laureates	3	100	300
Clarivate alumni (prior years)	1	0 (not mentioned)	0
Kalshi	3	19	57

Total weight of active sources: 7. Sum of weight × heat: 357. Composite: 357 ÷ 7 = 51.0.

Arguing with it

Every weight is a line in a public file and every change is a dated update, so if we change our minds the replay shows exactly when. If you think a source deserves more or less, that argument is the content. Write in.