Sources

Every signal the ranking reads, with its weight. Weights are explained on how the score works. Know a source we're missing? That is an update waiting to happen.

• Clarivate Citation Laureates named weight 3

  The strongest quantitative predictor. Each September Clarivate names a handful of economists whose citation records look Nobel-class. Dozens of past picks have gone on to win, often years later.

• Clarivate alumni (prior years) named weight 1

  Everyone Clarivate named in an earlier year who has not won yet. Still a real signal, since most Citation Laureates who win do so years after being named, but a weaker one than this year's list.

• Polymarket prob weight 3

  A prediction market with real money on it. No 2026 Economics Nobel market as of Sept 20; its Peace and Literature markets open much earlier than economics. Enters the board when it lists one.

• Kalshi prob weight 3

  A regulated US prediction market. Its 2026 Economics Nobel market opened July 1 with nine names. We record the price Kalshi displays, the last trade, and fall back to the midpoint of the best yes bid and ask for contracts that have never traded. Bid and ask ride in the note, since the book is thin. Kept separate from Polymarket so the two can disagree in public.

• Ladbrokes prob weight 2

  Bookmaker odds, converted to an implied probability. Bookmakers price to balance their book, not to be right, so they carry less weight than a market.

• Marginal Revolution rank weight 1.5

  Tyler Cowen's annual picks, in his order. One well-read economist's judgment, published before the announcement every year.

• Cheap Talk pool share weight 1

  The Kellogg School blog's annual prediction pool. A crowd of economists voting, reported as shares.

• HSE prediction contest share weight 1

  HSE University's annual open prediction contest. Aggregates informed opinion, reported as shares of entries.

• KmikeyM desk named weight 0.5

  Our own calls. Deliberately light, so the desk can flag a sleeper without bending the board.