W. Brian Arthur

The work. Increasing returns and lock-in: why an inferior technology can win a market and keep it once enough users pile on, plus the complexity economics program at Santa Fe.

The case for. Network effects became the operating logic of the tech industry, and Arthur wrote the theory in the 1980s when the journals did not want it.

The case against. Born in 1945, an engineer by training, and outside the mainstream for decades. The committee rewards work the profession absorbed, and complexity economics never quite was.

The KmikeyM angle. Lock-in says early adopters set the path. KmikeyM's first shareholders from 2008 are still steering, which is exactly what Arthur would predict.