Rankings / Candidate
David Forbes Hendry
University of Oxford · Econometrics
Currently #11, tier Field, score 14.3, named by 1 source.Score history: 100.0, 25.0, 14.3
The work. Hendry built the LSE approach to time-series modeling: start general, test down to something specific, and let the data reject you. His PcGive software put it on desks, and his work on why forecasts fail after structural breaks is the honest half of macro forecasting.
The case for. He turned modeling from an art into a procedure.
The case against. Engle and Granger took the time-series prize in 2003, he is in his eighties, and a three-way split with Pesaran and Phillips thins the story.
The KmikeyM angle. A market on a person breaks structure every time he moves cities, and Hendry's point is that the old forecast dies at the break.
What the sources say
- Clarivate alumni (prior years) named David Forbes Hendry: named in 2013: for their contributions to economic time-series, including modeling, testing and forecasting (heat 100) Preseason: the Clarivate alumni pool