Kenneth S. Rogoff

The work. The conservative central banker model (1985), which says hire someone who hates inflation more than you do, plus the Obstfeld-Rogoff textbook that defines open economy macro, plus This Time Is Different with Reinhart.

The case for. Three bodies of work that each stand alone, plus former IMF chief economist and chess grandmaster.

The case against. The crisis half was covered by the 2022 prize, and central bank independence is a topic the committee has stepped around for forty years.

The KmikeyM angle. Rogoff's trick, hire a hawk to tie your own hands, is exactly what a person does by handing life decisions to shareholders who care less about his comfort than he does.