Rankings / Candidate
Tim Besley
London School of Economics · Development
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Currently #77, tier Field, score 4.5, named by 1 source.Score history: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.5
The work. Political economy of development: why some states can tax, enforce contracts and deliver services and others cannot. Pillars of Prosperity with Torsten Persson built the modern theory of state capacity. Earlier work on local public goods, political agency and the economics of microfinance.
The case for. Development is one of the fields Richard Tol's model says is due, and Besley with Persson and Tabellini would be the state-capacity prize the 2024 institutions prize left open.
The case against. Persson sits close to the committee, which may rule the pairing out, and Tol himself floats Demirguc-Kunt as the alternative. No market lists him.
The KmikeyM angle. State capacity is the ability to collect what you are owed and deliver what you promised. A one-man corporation with public shareholders runs on the same two muscles.
What the sources say
- Richard Tol's model ranked Tim Besley #6 of 10: development, with Persson and Tabellini; Tol notes Persson's closeness to the committee may rule it out (heat 50) Polymarket opens with seventeen names, and six new sources join the board