David Autor

The work. The China Shock, which measured what import competition did to American manufacturing towns, and the polarization of the labor market as routine jobs got automated away.

The case for. He turned trade and technology from theory into hard local evidence, and the findings reshaped how both parties talk about trade. The AI-and-jobs debate starts with his work.

The case against. Card's 2021 prize covered labor empirics, and a China Shock prize would have to include Dorn and Hanson, which crowds the three seats if Katz is also in.

The KmikeyM angle. Autor tracks what happens to a worker when the market decides his skills are obsolete; KmikeyM lets the market vote on his skills before the obsolescence arrives.