Rankings / Candidate
Ariel Pakes
Harvard University · Industrial organization
Currently #5, tier Darkhorse, score 23.7, named by 2 sources.Score history: 100.0, 25.0, 23.7
The work. The P in BLP, plus the Ericson-Pakes framework for dynamic competition, where firms invest, enter and exit while watching each other, plus the Olley-Pakes fix for production function estimation.
The case for. The most decorated of the three, with a BBVA Frontiers of Knowledge Award, and his name is on the demand, supply and dynamics tools of modern IO.
The case against. Tirole took the field's last medal in 2014, and the committee has yet to reward empirical IO as a body of work rather than a theory.
The KmikeyM angle. Ericson-Pakes models firms that keep investing because rivals might. Mike invests in himself because shareholders are watching, the same game with one player and an audience.
What the sources say
- Clarivate alumni (prior years) named Ariel Pakes: named in 2020: for their BLP random coefficients logit model for demand estimation. (heat 100) Preseason: the Clarivate alumni pool
- Kalshi priced Ariel Pakes at 22%: last trade 22 cents on Aug 27; resting bid 14, ask 22 (heat 22) Kalshi has been open since July, and Athey moved on Clarivate day