Oct 1, 2026

Pakes pulls ahead, and Athey's 60 unwinds

Eleven days out, Ariel Pakes leads Kalshi at 24 cents on steady buying and a two-cent spread. Susan Athey's 60-cent print from last week has unwound to 15. Every name on the market has now traded. HSE's contest is open with no tally until the prize, Cowen has named nobody, and there is still no bookmaker or Polymarket market for economics.

Last week the Kalshi market jumped around on a handful of contracts. This week it settled, and it settled on one name.

Pakes. Ariel Pakes ended last Thursday at 18, the bottom of a midnight selloff. Since Friday buyers have taken him at 22, 23 and 24 again and again, the biggest a 70-contract fill at 23 on Tuesday. His spread has closed from 15/22 to 22/24. That is the tightest book on the market, and the first time this season a price has held for days on real volume.

Athey. Susan Athey's 60 from last Thursday was three contracts, and it is gone. She was sold down to 8 and 9 on Monday night and bought back at 14 to 16 on Wednesday. She reads 15 on our board, which records the last trade. Her resting quote is 25 bid, 50 ask, on one contract each side, so it says almost nothing. She still has the second-largest open interest on the market, after Pakes.

The round trips. Somebody bought 168 contracts of Richard Blundell at 14 on Saturday and sold exactly 168 at 8 on Wednesday. Luigi Zingales got a burst of about 177 contracts at 6 to 9 on Sunday night, sold back to 2 within a day. Both look like one trader in and out, not a change of view.

Everyone has traded. On Monday night the sell side printed first trades, a few contracts each, for Matthew Rabin at 5, Robert Barro at 7, Ernst Fehr at 6 and Andreu Mas-Colell at 6. Under our rule they now carry a last trade instead of a quote midpoint. Those prints are tiny, and the asks above them sit at 13 or 14.

The other sources. HSE's prediction contest is open: each voter names up to three economists, and voting closes October 12 at 12:45. A correction: on September 25 we wrote that it usually opens in late September or early October. This year it opened September 21. HSE publishes no running tally, so there is nothing to score until it announces results after the prize. Tyler Cowen has so far only linked to the Kalshi market, without naming anyone. Oddschecker lists the Peace Prize and nothing for economics, Ladbrokes would not load for us, and Polymarket has a Peace market but none for economics.

The prize is announced Monday, October 12, at 11:45 CEST at the earliest, the last of the 2026 announcements.

What came in with this update

Kalshi priced Ariel Pakes at 24%: last trade 24 cents on Sept 30, 19:04 PT, four contracts; repeated buying at 22 to 24 since Sept 25, the largest 70 contracts at 23 on Sept 29; resting bid 22, ask 24 (heat 24) → #5
Kalshi priced Susan C. Athey at 15%: last trade 15 cents on Sept 30, 19:05 PT, one contract; sold as low as 8 on Sept 28 PT, bought back at 14 to 16 on Sept 30; resting bid 25, ask 50, one contract each side (heat 15) → #1
Kalshi priced Richard Blundell at 8%: last trade 8 cents on Sept 30, 14:01 PT, a 168-contract sale that exactly unwound a 168-contract buy at 14 on Sept 26; resting bid 7, ask 13 (heat 8) → #6 (was #9)
Kalshi priced Robert J. Barro at 7%: first trade ever, 7 cents on Sept 28 PT, about three contracts; resting bid 7, ask 13 (heat 7) → #7 (was #6)
Kalshi priced Partha Dasgupta at 6%: last trade 6 cents on Sept 28 PT; resting bid 6, ask 13 (heat 6) → #8 (was #10)
Kalshi priced Ernst Fehr at 6%: first trade ever, 6 cents on Sept 28 PT, about three contracts; resting bid 6, ask 14 (heat 6) → #8 (was #7)
Kalshi priced Andreu Mas-Colell at 6%: first trade ever, 6 cents on Sept 28 PT, a handful of contracts; resting bid 6, ask 14 (heat 6) → #73
Kalshi priced Matthew Rabin at 5%: first trade ever, 5 cents on Sept 28 PT, about three contracts; resting bid 5, ask 13 (heat 5) → #10 (was #8)
Kalshi priced Luigi Zingales at 2%: last trade 2 cents on Sept 28 PT; a burst of about 177 contracts bought at 6 to 9 on Sept 27 PT was sold back down within a day; resting bid 2, ask 8 (heat 2) → #74

The board after this update

Contenders Strong work, right age, right timing.

#		Candidate	Field	Sources	Score
1	–	Susan C. Athey Stanford Graduate School of Business	Market design	2	49.3
2	–	Hal R. Varian University of California, Berkeley (emeritus); formerly Chief Economist, Google	Market design	1	42.9
2	–	Sidney G. Winter The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania (emeritus)	Innovation and firms	1	42.9
2	–	Michael D. Woodford Columbia University	Monetary	1	42.9

Darkhorses Respected, lower probability, could surprise.

#		Candidate	Field	Sources	Score
5	–	Ariel Pakes Harvard University	Industrial organization	2	24.6
6	▲3	Richard Blundell University College London / Institute for Fiscal Studies	Labor	2	17.7
7	▼1	Robert J. Barro Harvard University	Macro	2	17.3
8	▲2	Partha Dasgupta University of Cambridge	Environment	2	16.9
8	▼1	Ernst Fehr University of Zurich	Behavioral	2	16.9
10	▼2	Matthew Rabin Harvard University	Behavioral	2	16.4

The Field On our radar. The live sources are not pricing them.

#		Candidate	Field	Sources	Score
11	–	Manuel Arellano CEMFI, Madrid	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	W. Brian Arthur Santa Fe Institute	Innovation and firms	1	14.3
11	–	David B. Audretsch Indiana University	Innovation and firms	1	14.3
11	–	David Autor MIT	Labor	1	14.3
11	–	Steven T. Berry Yale University	Industrial organization	1	14.3
11	–	Marianne Bertrand University of Chicago Booth School of Business	Labor	1	14.3
11	–	Jagdish Bhagwati Columbia University	Trade	1	14.3
11	–	Olivier Blanchard Peterson Institute for International Economics / MIT	Macro	1	14.3
11	–	Nicholas Bloom Stanford University	Macro	1	14.3
11	–	Steve Bond University of Oxford	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	Samuel Bowles Santa Fe Institute	Behavioral	1	14.3
11	–	Colin Camerer California Institute of Technology	Behavioral	1	14.3
11	–	Raj Chetty Harvard University	Public economics	1	14.3
11	–	Wesley M. Cohen Duke University, Fuqua School of Business	Innovation and firms	1	14.3
11	–	Janet Currie Princeton University	Public economics	1	14.3
11	–	David A. Dickey North Carolina State University	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	Avinash K. Dixit Princeton University	Trade	1	14.3
11	–	Kenneth R. French Dartmouth College (Tuck School of Business)	Finance	1	14.3
11	–	Wayne A. Fuller Iowa State University	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	Jordi Galí CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona School of Economics	Monetary	1	14.3
11	–	Mark Gertler New York University	Monetary	1	14.3
11	–	Edward Glaeser Harvard University	Growth	1	14.3
11	–	Mark Granovetter Stanford University	Theory	1	14.3
11	–	Gene M. Grossman Princeton University	Trade	1	14.3
11	–	Robert E. Hall Stanford University / Hoover Institution	Macro	1	14.3
11	–	Jerry A. Hausman Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	Elhanan Helpman Harvard University	Trade	1	14.3
11	–	David Forbes Hendry University of Oxford	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	Søren Johansen University of Copenhagen	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	Katarina Juselius University of Copenhagen	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	Lawrence F. Katz Harvard University	Labor	1	14.3
11	–	Israel M. Kirzner New York University	Theory	1	14.3
11	–	Nobuhiro Kiyotaki Princeton University	Macro	1	14.3
11	–	David M. Kreps Stanford Graduate School of Business	Theory	1	14.3
11	–	Anne Osborn Krueger Johns Hopkins University	Political economy	1	14.3
11	–	Richard Layard London School of Economics	Behavioral	1	14.3
11	–	James A. Levinsohn Yale University	Industrial organization	1	14.3
11	–	Daniel A. Levinthal University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School	Innovation and firms	1	14.3
11	–	John A. List University of Chicago	Behavioral	1	14.3
11	–	George Loewenstein Carnegie Mellon University	Behavioral	1	14.3
11	–	Charles F. Manski Northwestern University	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	Paolo Mauro International Finance Corporation	Political economy	1	14.3
11	–	Marc Melitz Harvard University	Trade	1	14.3
11	–	John H. Moore University of Edinburgh	Theory	1	14.3
11	–	Sendhil Mullainathan MIT	Behavioral	1	14.3
11	–	Kevin M. Murphy University of Chicago Booth School of Business	Labor	1	14.3
11	–	Stewart C. Myers MIT Sloan School of Management	Finance	1	14.3
11	–	Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick	Behavioral	1	14.3
11	–	Sam Peltzman University of Chicago Booth School of Business	Industrial organization	1	14.3
11	–	Pierre Perron Boston University	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	M. Hashem Pesaran University of Southern California	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	Peter C. B. Phillips Yale University	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	Thomas Piketty Paris School of Economics	Inequality	1	14.3
11	–	Richard Posner University of Chicago Law School	Industrial organization	1	14.3
11	–	Raghuram Rajan University of Chicago Booth School of Business	Finance	1	14.3
11	–	Carmen M. Reinhart Harvard Kennedy School	Macro	1	14.3
11	–	Kenneth S. Rogoff Harvard University	Macro	1	14.3
11	–	Ariel Rubinstein Tel Aviv University / New York University	Theory	1	14.3
11	–	Emmanuel Saez UC Berkeley	Inequality	1	14.3
11	–	John B. Taylor Stanford University (Hoover Institution)	Monetary	1	14.3
11	–	David J. Teece UC Berkeley	Innovation and firms	1	14.3
11	–	Gabriel Zucman Paris School of Economics / UC Berkeley	Inequality	1	14.3
73	–	Andreu Mas-Colell Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona School of Economics (emeritus)	Theory	1	2.6
74	–	Luigi Zingales University of Chicago Booth School of Business	Finance	1	0.9