Matthew Rabin

The work. Formal models of psychology in economics: fairness as intentions, the calibration theorem on risk aversion, present-biased procrastination with O'Donoghue, and projection bias.

The case for. He is the theorist who made behavioral economics rigorous enough to model. The calibration theorem is a short argument that still embarrasses expected utility.

The case against. Thaler's 2017 prize covered much of this territory and Rabin was not on it. At 63 he is young by committee standards and can wait.

The KmikeyM angle. Present bias says people know the right long-term move and still defer it. KmikeyM exists because Mike outsourced the willpower problem to people whose money is on the line.