Rankings / Candidate
Richard Blundell
University College London / Institute for Fiscal Studies · Labor
Photo: Richardblundell, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Currently #6, tier Darkhorse, score 19.0, named by 2 sources.Score history: 100.0, 25.0, 19.0
The work. Labor supply, consumer demand, and the microeconometrics of household behavior, much of it built on British survey data at the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
The case for. He is the standard reference on how taxes and benefits change how people work, and the empirical toolkit he built runs through most of applied public economics.
The case against. Labor was rewarded in 2021 with Card, Angrist, and Imbens, and his output has no single headline result the committee can put on a poster.
The KmikeyM angle. His whole career is measuring how a person responds to incentives, which is the question every shareholder vote on Mike's behavior is trying to answer.
What the sources say
- Clarivate alumni (prior years) named Richard Blundell: named in 2015: for microeconometric research on labor markets and consumer behavior (heat 100) Preseason: the Clarivate alumni pool
- Kalshi priced Richard Blundell at 11%: never traded; bid 7, ask 15, midpoint 11 (heat 11) Kalshi has been open since July, and Athey moved on Clarivate day