KmikeyM Power Rankings

Who wins the 2026 Economics Nobel. One composite score over every prediction source we track, re-ranked with each update. How the score works.

As of Oct 6, 2026 · Leader: Ariel Pakes at 30.5

Darkhorses Respected, lower probability, could surprise.

#			Candidate	Field	Sources	Score
1	▲4	AP	Ariel Pakes Harvard University	Industrial organization	8	30.5
2	▼1		Susan C. Athey Stanford Graduate School of Business	Market design	5	28.6
3	▲8	SB	Steven T. Berry Yale University	Industrial organization	4	19.7
4	▼2	MW	Michael D. Woodford Columbia University	Monetary	2	19.6
5	▼3		Hal R. Varian University of California, Berkeley (emeritus); formerly Chief Economist, Google	Market design	2	19.4
6	▼4	SW	Sidney G. Winter The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania (emeritus)	Innovation and firms	2	19.0
7	▼1	RB	Robert J. Barro Harvard University	Macro	6	17.9
8	▲3		Lawrence F. Katz Harvard University	Labor	3	16.5
9	▲2		David Autor MIT	Labor	3	16.3

The Field On our radar. The live sources are not pricing them.

#			Candidate	Field	Sources	Score
10	▲1	JL	James A. Levinsohn Yale University	Industrial organization	3	13.6
11	–	KM	Kevin M. Murphy University of Chicago Booth School of Business	Labor	3	13.3
12	▼1	GG	Gene M. Grossman Princeton University	Trade	2	11.5
13	▼6		Richard Blundell University College London / Institute for Fiscal Studies	Labor	4	11.1
14	▼6		Partha Dasgupta University of Cambridge	Environment	5	9.8
15	▲60	TB	Timothy Bresnahan Stanford University	Industrial organization	2	9.1
15	▲60	SG	Sanford Grossman QFS Asset Management; formerly Wharton and Princeton	Finance	1	9.1
17	▼9		Ernst Fehr University of Zurich	Behavioral	4	8.9
18	▼8		Matthew Rabin Harvard University	Behavioral	4	8.7
19	▲56		Barry Eichengreen University of California, Berkeley	Macro	1	8.2
20	▼9	KF	Kenneth R. French Dartmouth College (Tuck School of Business)	Finance	2	7.9
21	▲54	DF	Drew Fudenberg Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Theory	1	6.4
22	▼11	MA	Manuel Arellano CEMFI, Madrid	Econometrics	1	6.1
22	▼11		W. Brian Arthur Santa Fe Institute	Innovation and firms	1	6.1
22	▼11	DA	David B. Audretsch Indiana University	Innovation and firms	1	6.1
22	▼11	MB	Marianne Bertrand University of Chicago Booth School of Business	Labor	1	6.1
22	▼11		Jagdish Bhagwati Columbia University	Trade	1	6.1
22	▼11		Olivier Blanchard Peterson Institute for International Economics / MIT	Macro	1	6.1
22	▼11		Nicholas Bloom Stanford University	Macro	1	6.1
22	▼11	SB	Steve Bond University of Oxford	Econometrics	1	6.1
22	▼11		Samuel Bowles Santa Fe Institute	Behavioral	1	6.1
22	▼11	CC	Colin Camerer California Institute of Technology	Behavioral	1	6.1
22	▼11		Raj Chetty Harvard University	Public economics	1	6.1
22	▼11		Wesley M. Cohen Duke University, Fuqua School of Business	Innovation and firms	1	6.1
22	▼11		Janet Currie Princeton University	Public economics	1	6.1
22	▼11	DD	David A. Dickey North Carolina State University	Econometrics	1	6.1
22	▼11		Avinash K. Dixit Princeton University	Trade	1	6.1
22	▼11	WF	Wayne A. Fuller Iowa State University	Econometrics	1	6.1
22	▼11		Jordi Galí CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona School of Economics	Monetary	1	6.1
22	▼11		Mark Gertler New York University	Monetary	1	6.1
22	▼11		Edward Glaeser Harvard University	Growth	1	6.1
22	▼11	MG	Mark Granovetter Stanford University	Theory	1	6.1
22	▼11		Robert E. Hall Stanford University / Hoover Institution	Macro	1	6.1
22	▼11	JH	Jerry A. Hausman Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Econometrics	1	6.1
22	▼11		Elhanan Helpman Harvard University	Trade	1	6.1
22	▼11	DH	David Forbes Hendry University of Oxford	Econometrics	1	6.1
22	▼11	SJ	Søren Johansen University of Copenhagen	Econometrics	1	6.1
22	▼11	KJ	Katarina Juselius University of Copenhagen	Econometrics	1	6.1
22	▼11		Israel M. Kirzner New York University	Theory	1	6.1
22	▼11		Nobuhiro Kiyotaki Princeton University	Macro	1	6.1
22	▼11	DK	David M. Kreps Stanford Graduate School of Business	Theory	1	6.1
22	▼11		Anne Osborn Krueger Johns Hopkins University	Political economy	1	6.1
22	▼11		Richard Layard London School of Economics	Behavioral	1	6.1
22	▼11		Daniel A. Levinthal University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School	Innovation and firms	1	6.1
22	▼11		John A. List University of Chicago	Behavioral	1	6.1
22	▼11		George Loewenstein Carnegie Mellon University	Behavioral	1	6.1
22	▼11	CM	Charles F. Manski Northwestern University	Econometrics	1	6.1
22	▼11	PM	Paolo Mauro International Finance Corporation	Political economy	1	6.1
22	▼11	MM	Marc Melitz Harvard University	Trade	1	6.1
22	▼11	JM	John H. Moore University of Edinburgh	Theory	1	6.1
22	▼11		Sendhil Mullainathan MIT	Behavioral	1	6.1
22	▼11	SM	Stewart C. Myers MIT Sloan School of Management	Finance	1	6.1
22	▼11		Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick	Behavioral	1	6.1
22	▼11	SP	Sam Peltzman University of Chicago Booth School of Business	Industrial organization	1	6.1
22	▼11	PP	Pierre Perron Boston University	Econometrics	1	6.1
22	▼11	HP	M. Hashem Pesaran University of Southern California	Econometrics	1	6.1
22	▼11	PP	Peter C. B. Phillips Yale University	Econometrics	1	6.1
22	▼11		Thomas Piketty Paris School of Economics	Inequality	1	6.1
22	▼11		Richard Posner University of Chicago Law School	Industrial organization	1	6.1
22	▼11		Raghuram Rajan University of Chicago Booth School of Business	Finance	1	6.1
22	▼11		Carmen M. Reinhart Harvard Kennedy School	Macro	1	6.1
22	▼11		Kenneth S. Rogoff Harvard University	Macro	1	6.1
22	▼11		Ariel Rubinstein Tel Aviv University / New York University	Theory	1	6.1
22	▼11		Emmanuel Saez UC Berkeley	Inequality	1	6.1
22	▼11		John B. Taylor Stanford University (Hoover Institution)	Monetary	1	6.1
22	▼11		David J. Teece UC Berkeley	Innovation and firms	1	6.1
22	▼11		Gabriel Zucman Paris School of Economics / UC Berkeley	Inequality	1	6.1
77	▼2		Tim Besley London School of Economics	Development	1	4.5
78	▼3	DW	David Weil Brown University	Growth	1	3.6
79	▼6		Andreu Mas-Colell Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona School of Economics (emeritus)	Theory	3	2.0
80	▼6		Luigi Zingales University of Chicago Booth School of Business	Finance	4	1.8
81	▼6	VC	Victor Chernozhukov Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Econometrics	1	1.7
82	▼7	DR	Demian Reidel Nucleoeléctrica Argentina; former chief economic adviser to President Milei	Macro	1	1.3
83	▼8	GS	Gilles Saint-Paul Paris School of Economics and École normale supérieure	Growth	1	0.9
84	▼9		Javier Milei President of Argentina	Political economy	1	0.5
85	▼10		Francine Blau Cornell University	Labor	0	0.0
85	▼10	MJ	Matthew Jackson Stanford University	Theory	0	0.0