KmikeyM Power Rankings

Who wins the 2026 Economics Nobel. One composite score over every prediction source we track, re-ranked with each update. How the score works.

As of Sep 25, 2026 · Leader: Susan C. Athey at 68.6

Contenders Strong work, right age, right timing.

#			Candidate	Field	Sources	Score
1	–		Susan C. Athey Stanford Graduate School of Business	Market design	2	68.6
2	–		Hal R. Varian University of California, Berkeley (emeritus); formerly Chief Economist, Google	Market design	1	42.9
2	–	SW	Sidney G. Winter The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania (emeritus)	Innovation and firms	1	42.9
2	–	MW	Michael D. Woodford Columbia University	Monetary	1	42.9

Darkhorses Respected, lower probability, could surprise.

#			Candidate	Field	Sources	Score
5	–	AP	Ariel Pakes Harvard University	Industrial organization	2	22.0
6	–	RB	Robert J. Barro Harvard University	Macro	2	19.0
7	▲1		Ernst Fehr University of Zurich	Behavioral	2	18.6
8	▲1		Matthew Rabin Harvard University	Behavioral	2	18.1
9	▼3		Richard Blundell University College London / Institute for Fiscal Studies	Labor	2	17.3
10	–		Partha Dasgupta University of Cambridge	Environment	2	16.9

The Field On our radar. The live sources are not pricing them.

#			Candidate	Field	Sources	Score
11	–	MA	Manuel Arellano CEMFI, Madrid	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–		W. Brian Arthur Santa Fe Institute	Innovation and firms	1	14.3
11	–	DA	David B. Audretsch Indiana University	Innovation and firms	1	14.3
11	–		David Autor MIT	Labor	1	14.3
11	–	SB	Steven T. Berry Yale University	Industrial organization	1	14.3
11	–	MB	Marianne Bertrand University of Chicago Booth School of Business	Labor	1	14.3
11	–		Jagdish Bhagwati Columbia University	Trade	1	14.3
11	–		Olivier Blanchard Peterson Institute for International Economics / MIT	Macro	1	14.3
11	–		Nicholas Bloom Stanford University	Macro	1	14.3
11	–	SB	Steve Bond University of Oxford	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–		Samuel Bowles Santa Fe Institute	Behavioral	1	14.3
11	–	CC	Colin Camerer California Institute of Technology	Behavioral	1	14.3
11	–		Raj Chetty Harvard University	Public economics	1	14.3
11	–		Wesley M. Cohen Duke University, Fuqua School of Business	Innovation and firms	1	14.3
11	–		Janet Currie Princeton University	Public economics	1	14.3
11	–	DD	David A. Dickey North Carolina State University	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–		Avinash K. Dixit Princeton University	Trade	1	14.3
11	–	KF	Kenneth R. French Dartmouth College (Tuck School of Business)	Finance	1	14.3
11	–	WF	Wayne A. Fuller Iowa State University	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–		Jordi Galí CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona School of Economics	Monetary	1	14.3
11	–		Mark Gertler New York University	Monetary	1	14.3
11	–		Edward Glaeser Harvard University	Growth	1	14.3
11	–	MG	Mark Granovetter Stanford University	Theory	1	14.3
11	–	GG	Gene M. Grossman Princeton University	Trade	1	14.3
11	–		Robert E. Hall Stanford University / Hoover Institution	Macro	1	14.3
11	–	JH	Jerry A. Hausman Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–		Elhanan Helpman Harvard University	Trade	1	14.3
11	–	DH	David Forbes Hendry University of Oxford	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	SJ	Søren Johansen University of Copenhagen	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	KJ	Katarina Juselius University of Copenhagen	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–		Lawrence F. Katz Harvard University	Labor	1	14.3
11	–		Israel M. Kirzner New York University	Theory	1	14.3
11	–		Nobuhiro Kiyotaki Princeton University	Macro	1	14.3
11	–	DK	David M. Kreps Stanford Graduate School of Business	Theory	1	14.3
11	–		Anne Osborn Krueger Johns Hopkins University	Political economy	1	14.3
11	–		Richard Layard London School of Economics	Behavioral	1	14.3
11	–	JL	James A. Levinsohn Yale University	Industrial organization	1	14.3
11	–		Daniel A. Levinthal University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School	Innovation and firms	1	14.3
11	–		John A. List University of Chicago	Behavioral	1	14.3
11	–		George Loewenstein Carnegie Mellon University	Behavioral	1	14.3
11	–	CM	Charles F. Manski Northwestern University	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	PM	Paolo Mauro International Finance Corporation	Political economy	1	14.3
11	–	MM	Marc Melitz Harvard University	Trade	1	14.3
11	–	JM	John H. Moore University of Edinburgh	Theory	1	14.3
11	–		Sendhil Mullainathan MIT	Behavioral	1	14.3
11	–	KM	Kevin M. Murphy University of Chicago Booth School of Business	Labor	1	14.3
11	–	SM	Stewart C. Myers MIT Sloan School of Management	Finance	1	14.3
11	–		Andrew J. Oswald University of Warwick	Behavioral	1	14.3
11	–	SP	Sam Peltzman University of Chicago Booth School of Business	Industrial organization	1	14.3
11	–	PP	Pierre Perron Boston University	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	HP	M. Hashem Pesaran University of Southern California	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–	PP	Peter C. B. Phillips Yale University	Econometrics	1	14.3
11	–		Thomas Piketty Paris School of Economics	Inequality	1	14.3
11	–		Richard Posner University of Chicago Law School	Industrial organization	1	14.3
11	–		Raghuram Rajan University of Chicago Booth School of Business	Finance	1	14.3
11	–		Carmen M. Reinhart Harvard Kennedy School	Macro	1	14.3
11	–		Kenneth S. Rogoff Harvard University	Macro	1	14.3
11	–		Ariel Rubinstein Tel Aviv University / New York University	Theory	1	14.3
11	–		Emmanuel Saez UC Berkeley	Inequality	1	14.3
11	–		John B. Taylor Stanford University (Hoover Institution)	Monetary	1	14.3
11	–		David J. Teece UC Berkeley	Innovation and firms	1	14.3
11	–		Gabriel Zucman Paris School of Economics / UC Berkeley	Inequality	1	14.3
73	–		Andreu Mas-Colell Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona School of Economics (emeritus)	Theory	1	4.3
74	–		Luigi Zingales University of Chicago Booth School of Business	Finance	1	0.9